Beef, Tariffs, & Tight Supply

Numbers Don’t Lie

If beef has felt harder (and pricier) to keep on spec this year, you’re not imagining it. The national herd is at 86.7 million head—the smallest in 70 years—and prices are only climbing. For chefs in Texas and Arizona, where beef is both tradition and centerpiece, the stakes are even higher.

Why the U.S. Herd Can’t Bounce Back Overnight

The beef cycle moves in years, not months. Expansion is slow because nature demands patience:

Gestation: ~283 days, or 9 months, per calf.
Rebuilding heifers: Calves must mature into breeding females—typically 22–26 months before their first calf.
Market weight: Steers require 18–24 months after weaning to reach slaughter weight.

Even if ranchers expand aggressively today, new supply won’t hit the market until late 2027 or 2028.

Tariffs Hit the Plate

Policy makes the squeeze even tighter:

Since April, most imported beef carries a 10% duty.
As of August 1, Brazilian beef—the largest growth supplier this year—was hit with a 50% tariff.

That pushes U.S. buyers to lean more heavily on domestic beef, right when herds are at their lowest.

A New Deal

Meanwhile, after decades of restrictions, the UK just opened its doors to U.S. beef imports.

That means a portion of U.S. beef that once would have stayed domestic will now ship overseas.

For U.S. chefs and restaurateurs, it’s another reminder that domestic beef will only get scarcer and costlier.

You can read our full blog post on the deal here.

The Data Doesn’t Sugarcoat It

The USDA projects beef and veal prices to rise nearly 10% in 2025—with upside risk to 13%—and analysts expect prices to keep climbing into 2026.

For Texas and Arizona buyers, the data makes the picture crystal clear:

Tenderloin is already climbing, with holiday highs expected in Q4.
Ribeye is ~18% higher year-to-date vs. 2024, and set to firm further into football and holiday season.
Striploin softens into September, but stabilizes by November—creating a narrow buying window.
Outside Skirt peaked in spring and fades into fall, though chefs can pivot to flap or tri-tip when supply tightens.

Meanwhile, Choice boxed beef sits above $411/cwt with a wide Choice–Select spread, and ERS projects tighter calf availability into 2026, locking in price floors.

For chefs, this doesn’t just mean higher invoices. It means beef is now a luxury commodity—and luxury demands intention.

The Chef’s Dilemma

Costs are rising, supply is shrinking, and now international buyers are in the mix. Chefs in Texas and Arizona—two of the most beef-centric states in the nation—are competing harder than ever for every pound.

Cutting menus, raising prices, or compromising on quality are all options. But the smarter move is to source differently: invest in beef that guarantees both quality and stability.

That’s where Argentine beef comes in.

Why Our Argentine Beef Wins

Tariff-safe advantage. Argentina isn’t hit with Brazil’s 50% penalty.
Quota stability. Argentina’s 20,000-ton U.S. quota is fully utilized each year—delivering predictable access.
Flavor that sells itself. Open-Pampas raised, grass-fed, tender, and richly marbled.
A story worth telling. With new “Product of USA” rules making origin transparent, Argentine provenance becomes a premium selling point: Ribeye from the Pampas, kissed with oak smoke.

Chef Tips for Texas & Arizona

Here’s how chefs in Arizona and Texas can play their cards to make sure they are sourcing the best beef at the best price:

Tenderloin: Pre-book holiday tenderloins now. Lock in coverage 4–8 weeks ahead of Thanksgiving and New Year—center-cut programs can stretch yield without sacrificing luxury.
Ribeye: Ribeyes are 18% higher YTD vs. 2024 and will climb further into football/holiday season. Secure near-dated ACS for peak weekends and keep some float for spot dips.
Striploin: Expect softness into September before a modest Q4 rebound. Take advantage of early-fall value windows with portion-cut specs or mix Choice/Select.
Outside Skirt: Seasonal fade in Sep–Oct. When supply tightens, swap with flap or tri-tip on fajitas and sandwiches—maintain flavor integrity without pushing plate cost.
Grinds: Blend imported with domestic trim to stabilize burger costs while Choice cutout stays high.

‍A Strategic Shift

Beef prices aren’t coming down. Domestic herds won’t rebound quickly. For chefs, our Argentine beef is a strategy. It gives chefs supply stability, price competitiveness, and the kind of storytelling that turns a dish into an experience.

At WorldClass Foods, we don’t just import Argentine beef—we make sure supply meets your standard—always.